FORESIGHT & INSIGHT

Southern African Sustainable Cities Under Climate Change

Client

Inter-University International Research Partnership
(Madagascar, Zimbabwe, South Africa, Mozambique and Canada)

Scope of Work

Desk Research
Futures Thinking Toolkit
Interviews
Horizon Scan
Engagement/Serious Gaming
Scenario Development
Foresight Workshops
Strategic Implications
AI tools
Final Report

Regenerative African Cities
This project involves research and problem-solving for sustainable urban adaptations to rapidly intensifying cyclones for the countries bordering the Mozambique Channel. This body of water separates Madagascar from the mainland of Southeast Africa. As an arm of the Indian Ocean, it is about 1,600 km long and between 400 to 950 km wide.

The growing intensity and unpredictability of cyclones forming in this area of the Indian Ocean over the last decade has threatened local sustainable development gains and interrupted potential avenues for achieving larger development targets. These impacts have been particularly felt in cities across Mozambique, Zimbabwe, South Africa, and Madagascar where the confluence of climate hazards and rapid urbanization have severely hampered reaching sustainability targets.

As the 2030 deadline for the attainment of the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) approaches, the need to undergo rapid societal transformations in the urban realm to achieve goals is becoming an increasingly urgent call. Regenerative futures thinking is a promising avenue for integrating longer-term SDG targets into the climate adaptation strategies in these cities impacted by severe climate hazards.

In this project, the development of a Futures Thinking Toolkit for climate change adaptation is led by Helen Kerr and supported by faculty at the University of Waterloo and faculty from institutions across Southern Africa (The University of Western Cape, University of Zimbabwe, Eduardo Mondlane University, Licungo University, and University of Antananarivo) extending across Southern African countries impacted by increasingly unpredictable and devastating climate impacts.

Climate Adaptation Stakeholder Networks
To integrate regenerative futures thinking to planning cyclone adaptation, this project has the following objectives:

We are charting new theoretical avenues for addressing cyclone impacts on sustainable urban development and translating that knowledge to practice. The project will also forge new climate adaptation stakeholder networks in Southern Africa, create a futures thinking policy toolkit to transfer knowledge to the field and develop adaptation strategies in cities, and advance progress towards SDG achievement in the Southern African region under the strain of these climate impacts.
Development of new tools, including those optimized by generative and agentic artificial intelligence, will be produced to augment regenerative futures as a pathway towards achieving short-term cyclone adaptation and long-term sustainability transitions.